Forecasts of major macroeconomic variables relating to Spain
» Macroeconomic Indicators in Spain (updated 24/2/2011)
Completed in 2010 can draw some important conclusions, despite the great uncertainty that still is in place on the European and Spanish economies, macroeconomic data at the end of last year perimiter confident that we are at the end of the tunnel, and this
year could be the beginning of the end of the crisis.
Gross Domestic Product has gone to decline in 2010, however, the rate of change has been only -0.2% which is four points less than our forecast at the beginning of the year and away from rates close to -1 % who predicted some national and international institutions. Evolution, therefore, has been favorable and has been determined by the strong growth driven by private consumption and for exports.
The consumption of households has increased by 1.3%, and despite all the measures adopted by the Government to redress the structural imbalances in the economy (increase in VAT, termination of aid to the purchase of vehicles, reduction salary for civil servants, public expenditure control ...) and a further increase in the number of unemployed. This can be interpreted as a positive sign that confidence is returning to the public, but it is still early to confirm this, so our forecast for 2011 is an increase of less than 2010 in five tenths. The consolidation of this game would take place next year, when the prognosis itself that is superior to 1.6%.
Regarding the external sector, the increased intensity in the sale of domestic products abroad has allowed the annual growth rate of exports has reached 10.3% while it is true that we were really negative figures of the previous year. All this, together with some control of expenditure on purchase of foreign goods (+5.4% for imports) would have led to decreased trade deficit had it not been for the rising price of oil This has meant that at the end of 2010 the deficit has grown by 4.2% in current terms.
The expectations that we expect for this year remains positive with a real growth rate for exports about four percentage points higher than that of imports (5.4% vs 1.9%), while from 2012 and again equal.
The investment has experienced a third consecutive drop in annual real rate, reaching a 7% at the end of December 2010. Although their data completely coincided with that expected by our model at the beginning of last year, it seems a good value, unlike the consumption of individuals, suggests that firms from other serious problems that continue to succeed. While most of them continue to have red in their benefits, it is difficult to reactivate this game and it seems unlikely to occur even in 2011 when our estimate puts the annual rate of -2.2% in yet. The return to the black this magnitude would be achieved in 2012 and the consolidation from next year.
As for the consumption of government, of course there has been a fall close to -0.7%, as it has been necessary to a strict control of public expenditure to put back on track the evolution of "public deficit, with the main objective of comply with the European Stability Pact by the end of 2013. This is exactly what is going to weigh down the trend in the coming periods, and are not expected to return to positive growth until the same year 2011, our model provides a forecast of even more negative change (-1%) than that produced last year.
The investment has experienced a third consecutive drop in annual real rate, reaching a 7% at the end of December 2010. Although their data completely coincided with that expected by our model at the beginning of last year, it seems a good value, unlike the consumption of individuals, suggests that firms from other serious problems that continue to succeed. While most of them continue to have red in their benefits, it is difficult to reactivate this game and it seems unlikely to occur even in 2011 when our estimate puts the annual rate of -2.2% in yet. The return to the black this magnitude would be achieved in 2012 and the consolidation from next year.
As for the consumption of government, of course there has been a fall close to -0.7%, as it has been necessary to a strict control of public expenditure to put back on track the evolution of "public deficit, with the main objective of comply with the European Stability Pact by the end of 2013. This is exactly what is going to weigh down the trend in the coming periods, and are not expected to return to positive growth until the same year 2011, our model provides a forecast of even more negative change (-1%) than that produced last year.
In conclusion of this, we are in 2011 before a year comes back very hard. Although expectations are again positive GDP (+0.8%), are not sufficient to tackle the problem of unemployment in Spain, and any negative movement in the international market can return to unbalance the situation.
Do not forget that continues to the extreme situation in Portugal, you may end up leading to a default that would impact negatively on Spanish companies and penalize our country risk significantly. In addition, the IPC maintains its upward trend, even with wage restraint, which combined with inflationary pressures being brought about by the rising oil prices (due to the crisis in northern Africa), can end all signs of recovery we were watching.
In short, the Spanish GDP growth is still very weak and will have to rely on the improvement of global environment for our situation to stabilize.
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIB | 3.6 | 0.9 | -3.7 | -0.2 | ||||
| Previsión | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumo Privado | 3.6 | -0.6 | -4.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Gasto Público | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.2 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Inversión | 4.2 | -4.3 | -15.8 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -2.5 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| Export | 6.7 | -1.1 | -11.6 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Import | 8.0 | -5.3 | -17.8 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 5.4 |
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